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Asia Bulletins, Asia Pacific, Geopolitics

Beyond oil: the blocked Gulf inputs that hurt Asia the most

Beyond oil: the blocked Gulf inputs that hurt Asia the most April 14, 2026 Since the Strait of Hormuz closed, oil and LNG prices have dominated the headlines. But as the war continues, the story that will define the next six to twelve months is the rising prices of everything else stuck in the Gulf. The Asia Bulletin reflects insights from IMA’s peer forums for CEOs and senior leaders. It highlights anonymised perspectives that surface the issues executives are grappling with firsthand. Reach out to us if you’re interested in the full report. It turns out that the Strait is a critical chokepoint for far more than oil.   For example, the Gulf is a major supplier of fertiliser inputs (e.g., urea) and helium to Asia. As these become scarcer, the prices of food and semiconductor chips will skyrocket. In late March, IMA Asia invited Nenad Pacek, founder of the EMEA Business Group and a 35-year veteran of Middle East business intelligence, to share his expertise with our members. The second-order supply shocks building behind the scenes were discussed. Even if the Strait were to reopen in the coming days or weeks, stockpiles of critical inputs are rapidly depleting, and damaged production sites across the Gulf will take time to repair. The impact across Asia will vary by industry and degree of dependence, but long-tail inflationary effects are to be expected. There appears to be no quick fix. Even in the base case of the war ending in the next month or so, Pacek advised: The clearance of the logjam and backlogs will take a while… our shipping clients believe this could linger into late Q2 or later. Below is a sample of the shortages to watch out for, along with a checklist to help Asia CEOs take action. The chips and electronics industries face helium and bromine shortages Helium is a big ingredient for the semiconductor industry. About 30% of the global supply comes from the region, mainly Qatar. Now it’s completely disrupted as well. Helium: Operations at QatarEnergy’s Ras Laffan Industrial City, the world’s largest LNG export facility, which produces helium as a byproduct, were halted after it was struck by an Iranian drone early in the war. Iranian missiles subsequently crippled the plant further. Spot helium prices have since doubled. For Asia’s chipmakers, the exposure is acute as stockpiles deplete. South Korea and Taiwan source more than 60% of their helium from Qatar, leaving them highly exposed. Japan has a more diversified supply base, sourcing only 30% of its helium from the Gulf. Bromine: used in precision chip etching and as a flame retardant in circuit boards, is also putting Korea’s electronics industry at risk. It is a quiet chokepoint that gets little media coverage but has a high concentration risk. Around two-thirds of the world’s bromine production comes from Israel and Jordan (from the Dead Sea), but Korea relies on Israel for most of its supply. The food and ag industries face fertiliser shortages (lacking inputs like urea, sulphur, etc.) as the planting season looms About 35% of the world’s fertiliser imports come from the Gulf. And about a third of the world’s urea passes through the Strait of Hormuz. The price of fertiliser has skyrocketed as shortages mount. The timing could not be worse for countries like India, with planting season on the way. India has an 800,000-ton deficit in its monthly urea production of 2.6 million tons due to limiting industrial gas supply to the 70–75% range. Furthermore, disruptions to ammonia imports have brought local production to a standstill, as the country sources 80% of its ammonia needs from the Gulf region. India is turning to Chinafor assistance. Australiaexpects current stocks to run out by mid-April, as it sources over 60% of its urea from the Middle East. A domino effect… Strait closure leads to shortages of urea and sulphur, which in turn cause shortages of nitrogen and phosphate fertilisers. Down the road, this could lead to lower crop yields, food price inflation, and potentially political instability. …on time delay. Experts expect inflation to spike mid- to late Q2 if the war extends. Food inflation will lag behind fertiliser price rises by three to six months, meaning H2 2026 is the key window to watch for food price cascades in Asia. Manufacturers face shortages in petrochemicals and aluminium A lot of the world’s supply chains — whether it’s the car industry, heavy industry, or plastics — depend on critical petrochemical components from the Gulf. And a lot of that is just simply not leaving. Petrochemical shortages are the hardest to quantify but could potentially result in the broadest shock. The Gulf’s SABIC, BOROUGE, QAPCO, and affiliates produce ethylene, propylene, polyethylene, methanol, and hundreds of downstream derivatives used globally in electronics, packaging, automotive, and pharma applications. For aluminium, it goes beyond logistics headaches. Iran has targeted the region’s major aluminium plants with missiles and drones. Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain are all stuck. All the aluminium exports from Bahrain are stuck, which has a global impact on top of everything else. The Middle East supplies 9% of the world’s aluminium, and Bahrain accounts for 3%. Aluminium prices hit a four-year high in March, with some suggesting they could reach $4,000 per ton if the industry faces severe disruption. One caveat: Chinese-invested aluminium plants in Indonesia are expected to ramp up production this year. A global logistics logjam — ships and containers stuck in the Gulf Ships and containers unable to offload their cargo remain in the Gulf, tying up shipping capacity needed elsewhere and driving prices higher. Hundreds of thousands of containers —up to 2 million TEU of cargo once downstream disruption is considered — are caught in the Gulf. That’s a global shipping disruption because those containers cannot be in Asian ports, the Port of Los Angeles or Rotterdam. So it’s already significantly increasing global shipping costs. The routing problem is not easily fixed – there are few port alternatives to the Strait in

Asia Bulletins, Asia Pacific

Asian Logistics Hubs: The cost-reliability trade-off

Asian Logistics Hubs: The cost-reliability trade-off January 20, 2026 In this issue of our Asia Bulletin, we hear from Asia’s leading CFOs about their concerns around logistics and inventory management, and the sharp trade-offs they are making. The Asia Bulletin reflects insights from IMA’s peer forums for CEOs and senior leaders. It highlights anonymised perspectives that surface the issues executives are grappling with firsthand. Reach out to us if you’re interested in the full report. What’s new: CFOs in Singapore are taking a closer look at the newly launched Johor–Singapore Special Economic Zone (JS-SEZ) to see whether it can improve inventory management and reduce logistics costs — without sacrificing reliability. This afternoon I’m headed to Malaysia to visit the new Johor–Singapore Economic Zone. A supplier moved their plant from Singapore to Johor, and the savings are phenomenal. They are looking at cutting labour costs by 25% to 30%, although they will need slightly more people. Rental savings are also around 25%. In Singapore, the REITs keep pushing up rents, while in Malaysia, getting things done efficiently is a nightmare. Why it matters: Warehousing and logistics across Southeast Asia force companies into sharp trade-offs — either reliable but expensive, or cheap but unpredictable. CFOs are watching the JS-SEZ to see whether it can narrow that gap. There must be balance. We consider our total cost of movement. Manufacturing may be cheap, but you only earn money when you sell something. In our case, we target the aftermarket and need to deliver goods in two to three days — or we lose the deal. What CFOs are saying about their options in Asia Vietnam — overcrowded and congested With China Plus One, a lot of products moved from China to Vietnam, but the infrastructure wasn’t ready. Everything was bursting at the seams. There were delays at the ports, in transshipment, and the bureaucracy can be very challenging. Hanoi is moving quickly now to build new ports and airports, mainly with Chinese firms. Warehouses in every market — opaque and costly We have warehouses in Jakarta, KL, Vietnam, and Bangkok. What issues do we run into? We overstock in some countries and don’t realise it until we have to write it off. That’s the trade-off — total logistics cost. Once you have warehouses in multiple countries, inventory becomes a real problem. Multiple distributors — duplication creates inefficiency We have distributors in almost every country, so you could say we effectively have warehouses with them. But that’s costly — additionally, distributors compete and don’t support each other. Fast-moving products — control matters more than location We need a reliable setup. Jakarta works for Indonesia, but not for customers in Singapore or elsewhere in Southeast Asia. No matter what happens in the supply chain, we are responsible. We work on fast-moving goods — 15 days, no more. If an Indonesian customer cancels, the product goes to Malaysia, Thailand, or Myanmar. It has to move. We don’t stock things up. Why Singapore wins — despite the cost Simplicity over price Over a decade ago, we put our Southeast Asia regional distribution centre in Singapore — two tall warehouses close to the port. Easy in and out. We don’t directly ship some products; we hold stock for 10 to 15 days. Vietnam was too complicated; product was always getting stuck. Indonesia is too far away. So Singapore is the best for us. Singapore is three times more expensive for two things: labour and rentals. The exchange rate difference between Singapore and Malaysia also matters — roughly three ringgit to one Singapore dollar. Connectivity still matters most Most product from Johor still moves through Singapore unless you truck it to KL, because connectivity isn’t strong. Trucking to KL or Penang takes time. Compare that with how easy it is to move goods into Singapore. Connectivity really matters. Ideal for transhipment Singapore works as a transshipment hub. If your product is just moving through — minimal labour, minimal handling, quick turnaround — Singapore is far more efficient. The government actively promotes transshipment. We work a lot with Economic Development Board — getting advice and sometimes funding — to build Singapore as a transshipment centre. Transshipment includes light assembly. You might bring components from China and India, fit them together in Singapore, and move them on. If you assemble without adding value, it’s duty-free. If you add value, then you pay duty. If we just touch Singapore — don’t store product there for long — and avoid holding inventory in an expensive location, that changes the size of the warehouse. We can have a smaller footprint. The Bottom Line: The Johor–Singapore SEZ is not replacing existing Asian warehousing altogether. Instead, it is emerging as a regional buffer for firms exhausted by execution risk and high costs elsewhere. For MNCs, that makes it strategically significant — not because it is cheap, but because it may restore predictability. Why it might work: the incentives and capabilities between the partner countries are aligned. Singapore is space-constrained and cost-heavy. By pushing labour- and land-intensive logistics into Johor — rather than losing them to Vietnam or Indonesia — it can protect its role as Asia’s premium transhipment and coordination hub, while extending capacity without diluting standards. Singapore is lending its management discipline, regulatory frameworks, and digital systems to ensure operations run smoothly and predictably across the border. Malaysia wants to prove it can deliver Singapore-adjacent execution at Malaysian cost… …by converting proximity into jobs and capex in Johor, and challenging the perception that Asian locations are cheaper but operationally unreliable. Malaysia is dedicating infrastructure and large-scale industrial land — 3,500–3,600 sq km (350,000–360,000 ha), nearly four to five times the size of Singapore. What CFOs are watching next: Early leasing and pilot deployments in Johor — a ‘wait-and-see’ hedge rather than a full relocation Border and connectivity performance metrics, not policy announcements — especially if they demonstrate consistency and speed Progress on the Johor–Singapore Rapid Transit System Link, scheduled for completion in late 2026,

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